AGP Executive Report

Climate Preparedness: Addis Ababa hosted an IGAD forum urging governments to turn El Niño forecasts into early action, including trigger-based cash support and livestock insurance. In neighboring Somalia, the Shabelle River has risen close to flood-risk levels as heavy rain is forecast across its basin and the Ethiopian highlands. Climate Science: IPCC representatives are due to meet in Addis Ababa on October 12 to decide when to publish the next major global-warming assessment, ahead of future UN climate talks. Biodiversity & Farming: Ethiopian researchers report that leaves from the native birbira tree helped produce a clay-based material that inhibited bacterial growth. Agriculture: Environmental advocates are calling for stronger, independent biosafety reviews and protections for local seeds and smallholder farmers as Ethiopia considers expanding agricultural biotechnology.

El Niño Readiness: Experts meeting in Addis Ababa urged governments to turn forecasts into early action, including trigger-based cash support and insurance for herders, before drought or food insecurity deepens. Flood Watch: The Shabelle River near Jowhar rose to 4.7 metres, just 30 centimetres below the moderate flood-risk threshold, as heavy rain was forecast over parts of the Ethiopian highlands that feed the river. Native Trees: Ethiopian researchers used leaves from the indigenous Millettia ferruginea to make antibacterial nanocomposites; the hardy tree also helps curb soil erosion and supports reforestation and wildlife habitat. Climate Science: IPCC member countries are due to meet in Addis Ababa on October 12 to decide when to publish the next major assessment of global warming.

Wildlife: A new EU-backed project will protect the endangered Egyptian vulture across its migration route between the Balkans and Africa, targeting poisoning, poaching and dangerous power lines. Green Research: Injibara University researchers report that leaves of Ethiopia’s native Millettia ferruginea helped produce zinc-oxide nanocomposites that inhibited bacterial growth; the hardy tree also supports reforestation and soil protection. Nile and Climate: Ethiopia’s foreign ministry says the GERD could help downstream countries manage floods and droughts while supplying clean electricity. Flood Risk: Heavy rain is forecast across Ethiopia’s highlands and parts of Somalia, where the Shabelle River at Jowhar has risen close to the moderate flood-risk threshold.

GERD and Climate Resilience: An Ethiopian diplomat says the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could help downstream countries manage floods and droughts while supporting regional energy and water cooperation. Climate Science: IPCC member states are due to meet in Addis Ababa on Monday amid a deadlock over the timetable for the panel’s next major climate assessment, which countries hope to have before 2028 UN climate talks. COP32 Preparations: As Addis Ababa prepares to host the 2027 climate summit, a UN-backed discussion is pressing for COP32 to turn climate pledges into action. Restoration and Food Security: A new $78 million UN programme aims to restore Africa’s Great Green Wall, while warnings of El Niño-related crop losses underline the need for timely preparation across the continent.

Climate Talks: Addis Ababa is set to host a pivotal IPCC meeting, as member states remain deadlocked over when to publish the next global climate assessment ahead of 2028 UN talks. Soil Health: A joint Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research–KOPIA project is promoting soil amendments, compost and biofertilizers to restore fertility and improve crop yields. Extreme Weather: A strong El Niño is forecast through February 2027, raising risks of drought, floods and food insecurity across Africa; early action will be vital to protect vulnerable communities. Farming Innovation: Ethiopia’s mechanised, climate-smart agriculture is drawing attention from Nigeria, whose vice-president says the country hopes to learn from Ethiopia’s gains in wheat production. Livestock: A new digital genetics service launched in Addis Ababa aims to help farmers and breeding programmes select more productive, resilient animals.

Soil Health: A three-year Ethiopia–Korea project is promoting compost, biofertilizers and soil amendments to tackle acidity and waterlogging and improve crop yields. Land Restoration: A new $78 million Great Green Wall programme aims to restore more than 270,000 hectares and support five million people across nine countries, including Ethiopia. Climate Risks: Forecasters warn a strong El Niño could persist through February 2027, raising the risk of drought, floods and low crop yields as communities face mounting climate pressures. Livestock: A new genetics service launched in Addis Ababa will use animal performance data to help farmers select more productive and resilient breeding stock. Electricity Access: Ethiopia is among the countries advancing the regional push to connect 300 million more people by 2030, but questions remain about how connections are counted and independently verified.

Climate Watch: A strong El Niño is expected to persist through February 2027, raising the risk of weather extremes and food and water stress. African countries are urged to act early to protect vulnerable communities. Land Restoration: A $78 million UN-backed Great Green Wall programme will restore more than 270,000 hectares and support five million people across nine countries, including Ethiopia. Green Legacy: UN and African forestry experts praised Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative as a continental restoration model, highlighting science-based policies and agroforestry as key to sustaining its gains and supporting livelihoods.

Green Legacy: UN and African forestry experts praised Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative as a continental restoration benchmark, while stressing that science-led policy, agroforestry and lessons from past experience are vital to sustaining its gains and supporting livelihoods. Environmental research: Two African scientists won $150,000 grants for projects using microbial signals to spot freshwater decline early and studying forest resilience in the Congo Basin. Energy transition: Ethiopia’s shift to electric vehicles is being framed as an economic and energy-security measure: a 2024 ban on petrol and diesel vehicle imports aims to cut a fossil-fuel bill exceeding $5 billion, with hydropower helping power the transition. Climate risk: UNICEF warns that 347 million children in nearly 100 countries could face severe floods or drought by December as El Niño strengthens.

Flood Risk: Maersk warned that heavy rain from October to December could disrupt roads and cargo routes in East Africa. Forecasts give a 90% chance of above-average rainfall over southern Ethiopia; rain may replenish pasture and water, but flooding could damage infrastructure. The World Bank has also warned El Niño could reduce crop yields. Hydropower: Ethiopia’s dams, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, have made the country a regional electricity supplier, but rural access remains limited and hydropower investments carry diplomatic costs over shared waters.

Climate & Food Security: The World Bank warns El Niño could cut yields and disrupt rains across Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda, with a below-average Meher harvest expected in Ethiopia and food assistance needs rising to 62 million people by March 2027. Water & Energy Diplomacy: A new analysis revisits Ethiopia’s hydropower push as a regional “hydro-dollar” engine, highlighting how GERD reshaped upstream water control even as Egypt’s opposition continues. Agriculture & Food Systems: An agroecology advocate argues Ethiopia and Africa must avoid repeating old models where “improved” crops become mainly commercial opportunities for large buyers, urging support for African-adapted crops and community rights. Ethiopia Governance: Ethiopia’s new five-year parliamentary chapter opens with PM Abiy Ahmed stressing Medemer, peace and dialogue, and stronger implementation capacity. Regional Security & Rivers: Ethiopia’s Nile and Red Sea posture remains in focus amid renewed Horn tensions, including calls for restraint and negotiations.

Horn of Africa Diplomacy and Security: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a quadrilateral declaration in New El-Alamein that regional observers say tightens a bloc affecting Ethiopia’s Nile and Red Sea interests, while analysts question whether Mogadishu’s diplomatic travel is purely policy or also a channel in the Ethiopia–Eritrea–Egypt rivalry. Ethiopia’s Nile and Sea Messaging: Ethiopia’s foreign ministry reiterated that nearly all Blue Nile flow comes from Ethiopian highlands and warned that maritime and security discussions must account for Ethiopia’s “legitimate interests,” rejecting coercion and proxy actions. Ethiopia’s New Political Chapter: Ethiopia inaugurated its new five-year government under the Medemer framework, with President Taye Atske Selassie outlining priorities on unity, peace, dialogue, and ending the cycle of armed conflict. AI Governance Push: A new Africa-wide policy debate highlights the need for accountable, inclusive AI deployment, noting implementation gaps even where strategies exist, including Ethiopia’s inclusion in national AI plans. Forestry Science-to-Policy Link: Ethiopia hosted the first SPIN Africa forestry dialogue to connect researchers and policymakers across seven countries. Kurmuk Mine Update: Allied Gold reported exploration progress at Ethiopia’s Kurmuk Mine, with commissioning nearing first ore and plans to extend mine life. Climate and Food Stress for Women: CARE reports compounding crises are worsening hunger and resilience for women in Ethiopia and other countries, with drought a major driver.

Ethiopia’s Political Reset: Ethiopia inaugurated its new five-year chapter with the seventh House of Peoples’ Representatives, parliamentary leadership in both chambers, and PM Abiy Ahmed sworn in for a second term—setting the stage for a new federal government and its development priorities. Nile and Red Sea Push: Ethiopia also reiterated firm claims over the Blue Nile and its “legitimate interests” in Red Sea maritime affairs, warning that rhetoric and proxy actions won’t change its role—while regional leaders in Egypt issued a joint declaration on Red Sea navigation, sovereignty, and Nile water security that indirectly heightens pressure around Ethiopia. Forestry Research Meets Policy: Addis Ababa hosted the first SPIN Africa regional science-policy dialogue on forestry, linking policymakers and researchers across seven countries to make forestry research more responsive to policy needs. Housing Costs and Climate-Linked Stress: A Habitat for Humanity report finds 75% of people globally cut back expenses to afford housing, with many sacrificing food and even delaying medical care—an affordability squeeze that can worsen vulnerability to environmental shocks. Tigray Conflict Risks Spillover: Reporting says Ethiopian government forces recaptured Mekelle after TPLF withdrew, ending a ceasefire and raising fears of renewed wider instability in the Horn. Tobacco Illicit Trade: Data from Zambia’s Tobacco Control Data Initiative shows illicit cigarette prevalence at 12.2%, with imported cigarettes far more likely to be illicit—linked to enforcement and supply-chain vulnerabilities.

Ethiopia Capital Markets: Ethiopia’s Capital Market Authority says citizen participation is accelerating, with about 38,000 people opening investment accounts and daily trading often exceeding 50 million birr as ECMA modernizes the system. Horn of Africa Security: The U.S. urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to show maximum restraint and return to dialogue under the 2018 peace framework as fighting in Tigray raises fears of wider instability. Diplomatic Fallout: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, while Eritrea severed ties—moves that deepen regional tensions with direct spillovers for cross-border stability. Nile Politics: Egypt reiterated support for a diplomatic solution to the Nile dam dispute and called for cooperation on shared rivers, framing water management as a test of African integration. Climate & Fossil Fuels: A 350.org report ahead of COP31 alleges Türkiye and Australia’s coal supply chain is linked to over 75 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions since Paris, warning fossil fuel ties could undermine transition pledges. Water Risk Framing: A new “water bankruptcy” concept argues many systems can’t bounce back from chronic overuse, pushing policymakers to move beyond short-term “water crisis” thinking. Finance Liberalization: Ethiopia’s central bank confirmed two foreign banks have applied to enter via greenfield investments, signaling further opening of the banking sector.

Horn of Africa diplomacy under strain: Egypt’s PM Mostafa Madbouly said Cairo will keep pushing a diplomatic solution to the Nile dam dispute, stressing rivers are governed by international law and calling for dialogue over confrontation. Regional water politics: Egypt’s President al-Sisi reiterated rejection of foreign interference and urged African states to coordinate on shared rivers as a test of integration and non-harm. Ethiopia–Eritrea escalation risks: The US urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to exercise maximum restraint and return to dialogue as fighting in Tigray rises; Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled Eritrean diplomats, while Eritrea severed ties. UN security focus: The UN Security Council is set for closed consultations on northern Ethiopia tensions, warning the fragile calm after the 2022 Pretoria Agreement could unravel. Climate and resilience angle: IFRC said China–Africa partnerships are strengthening community resilience and disaster risk reduction, including in Ethiopia and Djibouti. Food security warning: El Niño-linked risks are expected to worsen food insecurity in Malawi, with households lacking income as rainfall delays bite. Energy and environment watch: COP31 coverage highlights electrification as a key climate lever, while Lamu’s planned Dangote refinery is set to boost port traffic and logistics—raising scrutiny for environmental safeguards.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions: The US urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to exercise “maximum restraint” and return to dialogue under the 2018 peace framework, warning that any fresh confrontation could trigger a wider humanitarian crisis across the Horn. Diplomatic Fallout: Ethiopia’s embassy closure in Asmara, Eritrea’s severing of ties, and reciprocal diplomatic expulsions have raised fears of escalation and regional spillover. Northern Ethiopia Security: The UN Security Council is set for closed consultations on deteriorating conditions in northern Ethiopia, after renewed friction threatens to unravel the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Humanitarian Resilience: An IFRC official said China–Africa partnerships are strengthening community resilience and disaster risk reduction capacity, with training linked to Ethiopia and Djibouti. Food Security & Climate: Reports warn El Niño-linked rainfall delays and dry spells could worsen food insecurity in parts of East and Southern Africa, driven by weak household incomes and limited agricultural labor. Water & Forests: A Rome-based forestry forum highlights forests’ role in “food, resilience and prosperity,” echoing the need to protect forest livelihoods.

Climate & energy transition: UN chief António Guterres’ COP31 push spotlights electrification as a practical climate lever, with Türkiye aiming to lift electricity’s share of global energy demand to 35% by 2035. Foreign exchange & local industry: M-PESA Ethiopia CEO Wim Vanhelleputte says Ethiopia’s FX reform is easing the path for local manufacturing and investment, turning “short-term pain” into longer-term supply-chain growth. Northern Ethiopia conflict & regional spillover: Multiple reports warn that renewed fighting in Ethiopia is tightening diplomatic and security knots across the Horn and Red Sea, with Ethiopia’s rupture with Eritrea and tensions involving Egypt raising risks for maritime stability. Humanitarian coordination: A separate analysis argues northern Ethiopia’s aid delivery will hinge on disciplined coordination between federal authorities and humanitarian groups under clear responsibilities. Solar irrigation in Ethiopia: A feature on solar-powered irrigation highlights real diesel savings for farmers, while stressing that water management, maintenance, financing, and market access decide whether gains last. Forests for food: A Rome-based piece ties forest protection to livelihoods and resilience, echoing FAO’s World Forest Week theme. Regional oil infrastructure: Kenya’s Lamu refinery plans (linked to Dangote) are framed as a potential boost for shipping and port activity, but also raise questions about environmental and pre-construction scrutiny.